RECESSION/DEPRESSION AND MAKE-BELIEVE - 10.04.2022
October 4, 2022
Good Tuesday morning.
Welcome to RUPP'S NOTES/FBI SPECIAL AGENT HARTMANN SERIES post for October 4, 2022. I'm novelist Richard V. Rupp, writing from Burbank, California.
To my readers who are observing Yom Kippur tonight, I wish you an easy fast.
As a writer of crime novels, I love to dream up ways to kill people (on paper). To help feed my mind, I love to see what other crime writers are coming up with. Makes for some interesting bar conversations and keeps your mind active and alert.
I'm looking forward to several new crime shows being broadcast this month. They include SHERWOOD on Britbox, ALASKA DAILY starring Hilary Swank on ABC, and MAGPIE MURDERS on PBS. I'm currently enjoying VAN DER VALK Season 2 on PBS.
Unfortunately, we have been watching live real death and destruction this past week caused by Hurricane Ian. I watched one older couple who had retired in Florida as they indicated they were moving back to New Hampshire because it would take the rest of their lives to replace what they had lost. It was heartbreaking. It is reported the storm has killed over 100 people. Most of the deaths were from drowning. One elderly couple died when their oxygen machines lost power.
Though I have been retired from the industry for 13 years, I still read the insurance/risk management trade journals. I noted that the Insurance Information Institute projected Hurricane Ian to be one of the deadliest in Florida's history. It is estimated that Ian caused well over $100 billion in losses. The most costly hurricane was Katrina in 2005, which killed 1,833 and produced $186.3 Billion in damage. The storm surge (damage not covered by homeowner's insurance) makes hurricanes costly natural disasters. Ian insured damage estimates are between $42 billion to $63 billion (excluding losses to the National Flood Insurance Program). That's a major hit on the industry.
From RUPP'S INSURANCE & RISK MANAGEMENT GLOSSARY, the definition of "flood" – "An overflowing of a body of water onto normally dry land or an unusual rise in the level of inland or tidal waters." And remembering from my contributing to insurance textbooks days, I can indicate that, in general, damage caused by wind, wind-driven rain, and water that comes into a home through the roof, windows, doors, or holes in the walls is covered by homeowners insurance. But damage from flooding or water that rises from the bottom up—from the overflow of a body of water, like a storm surge—is not covered. Early reports indicate that few of the many inland properties that suffered damage from Ian have flood insurance. You need to buy a separate flood insurance policy to cover flooding damage.
I love this advice from Eva Marie Uzcategui, a Flordia attorney specializing in insurance claims. It provides an indication of what age group suffered the most significant loss. She stated that in handling Ian's insurance claims, remember that it is the "ethical obligation required by the administrative codes that - An adjuster shall exercise extraordinary care when dealing with elderly clients to assure that they are not disadvantaged in their claims transactions by failing memory or impaired cognitive processes."
I agree with many of the people on Sunday morning news shows who question whether or not it is wise to use tax dollars to rebuild communities that are subject to repeated storm surge damage which will become more frequent because of climate change. My gut tells me the rebuilding costs, and insurance rate increases will significantly impact our current inflation problem and may be the trigger that pushes us into a depression. Resources are going to be drained; that's a certainty.
Do you want to take your mind off our recession, which could turn into a depression? Then join the make-believe world I live in.
My dad worked throughout the "Great Depression" (1929-39) because he was in the movie industry. What's happening here in Burbank – Media Capital of the World – and the adjacent Hollywood media-oriented communities may signify the times.
Brian, my son who is in the movie biz, has confirmed to me what a DELOITTE report indicates, "Though the Los Angeles area has the largest number of soundstages of any city in the world, studios are operating near 100% capacity with wait lists as long as five film productions deep for those spaces."
The DELOITTE report indicates, "The media and entertainment industry is made up of trailblazers intent on expanding technologies in new ways to engage the world. This is a time of exciting change as new trends and technologies drive innovation, disruption, and opportunities for growth in media and entertainment."
An LA TIMES article indicates, "In the ring of L.A.'s famed Thirty Mile Zone of filming territory, developers are upgrading old studios such as Warner Bros. (where my dad worked) Ranch in Burbank, and Universal Studios and inventing whole new ones, including one of the properties of the former Sears store in Hollywood and one planned in the Los Angeles Times printing plant downtown.
Bar hopping on San Fernando Road is tremendous these days. Everyone is in a great mood as long as you talk about the entertainment industry and not what's on the news (a war that may become nuclear, rampant inflation, a lingering pandemic, a Bear financial market, a recession, and a possible DEPRESSION). In other words, my town is hopping! And it's all within walking distance from my pad.
Outside of the people who work in our make-believe world here in Hollywood, there is a general feeling of depression in the country. This is confirmed by the increasing amount of time spent in the make-believe world. This indicates that, like during the "Great Depression," people want to take their minds off what's happening in the real world and spend more time in a make-believe one.
Speaking of make-believe, October is National Novel Writing Month. In the U.S., the principal sponsor is the nonprofit organization called "Nations Writing Month." Its flagship program is an annual, international creative writing event in which participants attempt to write a 50,000-word manuscript. Their website provides participants, called "Wrimos," tips for writer's block. Focusing on the length of a work rather than the quality, writers are encouraged to finish their first draft quickly so it can be edited later at their discretion. If you wish to participate in this program, visit their website at https://nanowrimo.org/.
Richard V. Rupp, Author
Website – www.richardvrupp.com
Email – firstname.lastname@example.org
Copyright©2022 by Richard V. Rupp